Western Kentucky

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	39.0
Current RPI:	39
Expected SOS:	80
Current SOS:	80
Current Record:	23-10
Expected Record:	23-10
Current Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	74
Expected OOC SOS:	33

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-10	39.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	80-85	L	0%
11-19	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	100-86	W	100%
11-22	Villanova (2.0)	BE	N	66-58	L	0%
11-23	Purdue (9.0)	B10	N	77-73	W	100%
11-24	SMU (113.0)	Amer	N	61-63	W	100%
11-29	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	83-51	W	100%
12-2	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	78-60	W	100%
12-10	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	A	89-84	L	0%
12-13	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	A	81-80	L	0%
12-16	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	81-65	W	100%
12-19	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	72-75	L	0%
12-22	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	55-72	W	100%
12-28	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	H	69-68	W	100%
12-30	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	82-66	W	100%
1-6	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	87-112	W	100%
1-11	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	68-75	W	100%
1-13	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	63-73	W	100%
1-18	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	77-69	W	100%
1-20	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	62-66	L	0%
1-27	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	85-74	W	100%
2-1	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	60-72	W	100%
2-3	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	74-63	L	0%
2-8	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	H	75-63	W	100%
2-10	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	83-76	W	100%
2-15	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	94-102	W	100%
2-17	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	66-85	W	100%
2-22	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	93-55	W	100%
2-24	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	88-66	W	100%
3-1	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	82-64	L	0%
3-3	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	101-73	L	0%
3-8	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	N	98-70	W	100%
3-9	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	N	49-57	W	100%
3-10	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	N	66-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Kentucky	CUSA	26.34	26.34	69.54	69.54	10.29	10.29
Marshall	CUSA	5.35	5.35	73.33	73.33	2.50	2.50
Old Dominion	CUSA	5.22	5.22	86.21	86.21	3.78	3.78
UAB	CUSA	5.19	5.19	60.71	60.71	1.11	1.11
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	3.74	3.74	75.00	75.00	1.87	1.87
Charlotte	CUSA	3.69	3.69	19.23	19.23	-2.27	-2.27
Southern Miss	CUSA	2.36	2.36	41.38	41.38	-0.41	-0.41
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	2.31	2.31	33.33	33.33	-0.77	-0.77
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	2.31	2.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	2.24	2.24	39.29	39.29	-0.48	-0.48
UTSA	CUSA	2.23	2.23	51.72	51.72	0.08	0.08
North Texas	CUSA	2.19	2.19	44.83	44.83	-0.23	-0.23
Rice	CUSA	2.17	2.17	17.86	17.86	-1.39	-1.39
UTEP	CUSA	2.16	2.16	34.48	34.48	-0.67	-0.67
Indiana St.	MVC	1.68	1.68	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.68	1.68	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
Belmont	OVC	1.67	1.67	71.88	71.88	0.73	0.73
Missouri St.	MVC	1.62	1.62	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	1.61	1.61	41.38	41.38	-0.28	-0.28
Austin Peay	OVC	1.59	1.59	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
Purdue	B10	1.56	1.56	84.85	84.85	1.09	1.09
Wisconsin	B10	1.56	1.56	43.75	43.75	-0.19	-0.19
Villanova	BE	1.54	1.54	87.88	87.88	1.17	1.17
Wright St.	Horz	1.54	1.54	74.19	74.19	0.74	0.74
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.54	1.54	62.96	62.96	0.40	0.40
SMU	Amer	1.52	1.52	53.12	53.12	0.09	0.09
Murray St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	82.76	82.76	0.13	0.13
Chattanooga	SC	0.20	0.20	25.81	25.81	-0.09	-0.09
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Morehead St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	22.22	22.22	-0.11	-0.11
James Madison	CAA	0.18	0.18	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois	B10	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
New Orleans	Slnd	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Evansville	MVC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	9.68	9.68	-0.12	-0.12
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Valparaiso	MVC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Troy	SB	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.12	0.12	84.38	84.38	0.08	0.08
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	8.00	8.00	-0.09	-0.09
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.04	0.04	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.04	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.04	0.04	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.04	0.04	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.02	0.02	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00